Onam season inventory planning: the spreadsheet I wish I had in 2015

The September-to-November festival season is the make-or-break window for most Kerala retailers. Over-order and you carry deadstock into Q1. Under-order and you watch customers walk to your neighbour. Here's a framework that actually works.

Step 1: pull last year's sales by week

Not by month — by week. The shape of the festival is week-specific, and a monthly view hides the rush. TechAge's ‘Year-on-year by week’ report does this in two clicks.

Step 2: identify the top 30% of SKUs by gross margin

The 80/20 rule is too generous. In retail, 30% of your items pull 80%+ of gross margin. Order those aggressively. Everything else, order conservatively.

Step 3: bake in a 15% buffer on the top 30%, 0% on the rest

Don't spread the buffer evenly. Concentrate it where the margin is. If you're wrong, you sell through anyway. If you're right, the unsold buffer is on items you'd have sold next quarter anyway.

Step 4: pre-book payments, not just deliveries

Suppliers will hold stock for you if you commit. Locking in payment terms 60 days before the season means you're not negotiating during the rush.

Step 5: review weekly during the season

Open the weekly report every Monday morning during September. The shape of the season changes year to year. The point of the framework is to give you a baseline you can adjust against — not a plan you stick to.